Saturday, November 10, 2007

Musharraf's Best Option

Gen (r) Mush is cornered. All doors seem to have closed on him. He has no one to blame but himself for this "checkmate".

By suspending the constitution he has committed treason for the 2nd time. His act of 1999 was condoned by the rubber stamp assembly of 2002. By that token, he will need another rigged election and another rubber stamp assembly of cohorts to avoid application of article 6 of the constitution on him (which declares treason as a crime punishable by death).

If Mush does not take off the uniform, he risks the wrath of the West, and especially the USA in which President Bush is finding it harder by the day to defend the policy of supporting Mush. Keeping the uniform, therefore, does not seem to be an option anymore.

Consequently, Mush may get a stamp of approval for his actions from the Kangaroo Supreme Court, notify himself as President for another 5 years, take off his uniform and declare elections in early 2008.

Since the source of his power revolves around the uniform, the moment he relinquishes charge as the Chief of Army Staff, he would expose his vulnerability to, not only the turncoats of Q-League but also to the Army high command. The tables may turn very quickly in such a scenario and he may face a severe backlash from popular uprising demanding his resignation/removal from the scene.

Mush, therefore, risks being ousted and put under trial for treason.

The only safe option that Mush might have at this point is to relinquish charge to the Senate Chairman and to the VCOAS, and perhaps opt for exile. Staying away from Pakistan for the next few years might provide him the oppotunity to launch a successful comeback, in case the successive government(s) are not able to deliver.

In the case otherwise, he will be risking a violent end for himself.

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